What works today won’t necessarily work tomorrow. In other words, success may just be a matter of luck.
Crashes result when overconfidence endangers risk. Predictability is vulnerable, a loose formula for how things usually go. Caution and adaptability on the other hand, better prepare for the unpredictable.
Forecasting is a means to an end. We’re urged to nail down certainty so we can keep moving forward. Rightness is therefore always at risk, as is wrongness. Apparently we always have to decide.