You can’t launch new ideas on old thinking. You can’t launch new ideas on new thinking either without risking failure.
No one knows if their idea is going to work. That’s why you test it. But you test it based on a series of observations (what’s trending) and hypothesis.
Ideas are two-fold: either you repeat a past model of success, even if you make a few tweaks, or try something completely different. Both require thinking. But “new thinking” makes the real contribution.