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The perils of too big

What goes up must go down. Everything that gains popularity hits an inflection point for both hyper-growth and slow decline.

As a result:

  • Bauer and his label will see limited royalties from his track all while less people consume it.
  • SXSW attendance will dip year over year.
  • Social users will gravitate to other social networks like SnapChat and Instagram

Popualrity signals decline. Hit tracks, events, companies may be around another 100 years but they’ll never be appreciated as they once were.

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He would flip on something so fast that you would forget that he was the one taking the 180-degree polar [opposite] position the day before.

—Tim Cook on Steve Jobs

(via Daily Exhaust)

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Social Media

The Open Internet With Tim Berners-Lee

Notes from SXSW:  The Open Internet With Tim Berners-Lee, creator of the World Wide Web:  A lot coding today is pre-packaged.  Any person can edit their photography or iTunes library without knowing the programming behind it. “Completely ignore how something is to be used.”  Tim’s way of encouraging creation and connecting it to other things.  We can’t always see what’s right in front of us.  Plus, someone else might do the connecting in which built a part.  “3D desktops are around the corner.”  He didn’t elaborate on this but augmented reality is coming quick (see Project Glass).  “The Internet is like the air you breathe.”  This is why Egyptians erupted as soon as the government shut it down.   Spying can be more “insidious” than blocking the Internet.  By leaving the Internet open, the government can track your every move.  “URLs will be around forever.” Tim predicts that GIFs may die however since they are just the latest creative sensation. The Internet must make it easy to “stroke” the artist’s content with micropayments. Ten cents can really add up. 
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Free is over

The Internet user is shifting consumption from free to paid.  

Paid is just way more convenient than free.  And the digital packaging is superior.  

Newspapers are finally profiting from paywalls. Legitimate music downloads and subscription services continue growing.  

YouTube users now expect a pre-roll, a blend of TV-like advertising with DVR capabilities.  Google’s content tags guarantee someone is getting paid for the impression.

The era of free is dying out to better paid alternatives.  It’s too burdensome to steal.  Money is going back to the artists.  

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Tablets now Taking A Greater Global Share of Web Page Views Than Smartphones:   Adobe found that Inter­net users view 70 per cent more pages per visit when brows­ing with a tablet com­pared to a smartphone — so tablet users are doing more leisurely (and presumably leisure time) browsing. Even more evidence that “PCs are going to be like trucks.”
Tablets now Taking A Greater Global Share of Web Page Views Than Smartphones:   Adobe found that Inter­net users view 70 per cent more pages per visit when brows­ing with a tablet com­pared to a smartphone — so tablet users are doing more leisurely (and presumably leisure time) browsing. Even more evidence that “PCs are going to be like trucks.”
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Productivity & Work Tech

Denying the GPS

Rarely do we override the GPS because we know a better way.

We depend on technology to reveal answers 99% of the time.  We override technology 1% of the time, and even then we have our doubts.

The irony, of course, is that while technology makes our lives easier, we forfeit the chance to think and learn new things.  We know more than ever but we experience less.  

Experience puts the bones in the goose.  There’s no evolution without a beautiful struggle.

The computer is a second brain, threatening our primary neurons.  The machine is replacing the animal in all of us.